The real estate market has had a rough ride since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022. But as expectations strengthen that the central bank will start cutting next month, the outlook is rebounding for property shares.rose in July for the first time since February helped focus attention that the industry’s headwinds are slowing and perhaps approaching a turning point.
The sharp rise in mortgage rates is widely cited as the key headwind, but here, too, there are signs that the tide is turning following yesterday’s news that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage dipped to a 15-month low. The only uncertainty vis-à-vis the Fed funds futures market is the size of the cut expected for the Sep. 18 policy meeting. At the moment, the market is pricing in a roughly 74% probability for a 25-basis-point reduction in the current 5.25%-to-5.50% target range for the Fed funds rate.
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