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Morgan Stanley Sees Sustained Rally in Chinese Stocks as Stimulus Measures Take Hold

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Chinese Stocks,Stimulus Measures,Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analysts predict a near-term rally of at least 10% in Chinese stocks, fueled by recent stimulus measures. They anticipate an even more sustained rally in the coming phase, driven by a broader economic recovery and efforts to curb deflation. The bank favors A-share companies with high dividend yields and free cash flows, as well as 'discounted' shares listed in both Hong Kong and mainland China.

Morgan Stanley says that Chinese stocks could enjoy a more "sustained rally" in the next phase — beyond a near-term jump — as they ride on the wave of stimulus measures and signals announced last week. "The policy pivot last week ... exceeded our expectations, with forceful monetary easing and unprecedented measures aimed at stabilizing and supporting the stock market and halting the property market's decline," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Sept. 29 report.

Stock screens Morgan Stanley did a few stock screens to sieve out those set to benefit. Here are two of them. The first showed six stocks – listed in Hong Kong - that turned up, which trade at deep discounts to A-shares, and should benefit from the central bank's announcements, it said. The second one screened out these stocks which have a current dividend yield below 2.25%, but with free cash flow yield "meaningfully" above 4% — versus the 2.25% borrowing cost.

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