on Friday morning as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment barometer released the final results prior to the election.
What’s more, there’s a lot of evidence that how consumers feel about the economy has an impact on how they vote in presidential elections. Exactly which metrics drive votes is hotly debated and, as with all metrics that purport to predict outcomes of presidential elections, some skepticism is required because the sample size is too small. We only have presidential elections every four years, so you need to be careful when drawing deterministic inferences.
Importantly, partisanship does not mean that the index is not reflecting “true” consumer sentiment or is not useful as an economic gauge or even a political barometer in an election year. For one thing, even if consumers are motivated by partisanship to see the economy in a certain light,. Consumers who are Republicans tend to expect the economy to perform better and see economic conditions more favorably when a Republican is in the White House—and this effects their investing and consumption.
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