China's struggling real estate sector may not start turning around until the second half of next year, even with the latest stimulus measures, analysts predict.
China's struggling real estate sector may not start turning around until the second half of next year — even with the latest stimulus measures, three research firms predicted this month."We are finally at an inflection point of the ongoing downward spiral in the housing market on the back of a comprehensive and coordinated easing package," Goldman Sachs analysts said in an Oct. 22 note titled"China real estate 2025 outlook: Bottoming in sight.
"Without such stimulus, the property market downturn could be prolonged by another three years," the Goldman analysts cautioned. They said such support would need to address developers' liquidity issues, reduce unsold housing inventories and ensure delivery of the pre-sold but unfinished homes. China's latest efforts to bolster confidence have given the real estate market a lift. Property sales in 22 major cities have fallen by around 4% on-year in October, a much smaller contraction than a plunge of more than 25% in September, according to China Index Academy, a real estate research firm.Property market stabilization, however, does not mean a full-scale recovery. Analysts project any rebound in home sales and new construction would remain subdued in the coming years.