index rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months through October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday, up from 2.1 percent through September. Core PCE prices, a measure that excludes food and energy, rose 2.8 percent, the
The month-to-month inflation figures do not look alarming until they are annualized. The 0.2 percent monthly gain in, meaning that would be the rate of inflation if it continued to run at this pace for a year. That’s a big increase from the 2.1 percent one-month annualized pace recorded in September and a long way from the Fed’s two percent target.
Core PCE rose 0.3 percent compared with the month prior, which annualizes to 3.3 percent. The prior month was running at a 3.1 percent annualized pace. In other words,, a category that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has mentioned as worth watching for signals of underlying inflationary pressures, was up an annualized 4.4 percent, a big increase from the 3.6 percent a month earlier.. This was up 0.2 percent month-t0-month and 3.1 percent compared with 12 months earlier.
The Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE inflation measure did improve on a one-month basis. This rose at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent, down from September’s 2.6 percent. But even after the decline, this is t. On a 12-month basis, trimmed mean inflation is up 2.7 percent—exactly where it was in the previous two months.is still humming along. The Department of Commerce said on Wednesday that household spending was up 0.4 percent in October, and incomes were up 0.6 percent.
The risks to the economy can no longer be described as balanced between a labor market downturn and an inflation increase. Inflation is the much greater threat. Unfortunately, the Fed may feel compelled to stick to its prior assessment for at least one more month and cut again in December. The market currently assigns aroundBut after that, the Fed is likely to go into a long hold as it assesses the new fiscal and economic picture emerging with.
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