The U.S. stock market right now is riskier than you think

Will the stock market’s real rate of return please stand up? It’s an important question. Depending on your frame of reference, the U.S. stock market is either performing fantastically or dismally.

Nor is this stark contrast just a product of the past year’s extraordinary volatility. The U.S. market’s comparable annualized return over the past 10 years is almost triple that of the market’s trailing 20-year return — 11.7% versus 4.2%. But that is precisely my point. Even if the future is like the past and equities’ average dividend- and inflation-adjusted return over the next 200 years is equal to its historical average of 6.7% annualized, there still will be lengthy periods along the way in which returns are much better or worse — periods that far exceed any of our investment horizons.

The CAPE hit its all-time high at the top of the 2000 internet bubble, and as you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500’s inflation- and dividend-adjusted return over the 19-and-one-quarter years since then has been barely half the historical average — 3.5% versus 6.7%. According to calculations I made using data provided on Shiller’s website, the stock market’s return over this 19.25-year period is lower than 82% of comparable returns since 1889.

Buy signal.

Oh I think we know it’s risky alright. It’s be safer to invest in Argentina or Italy where their governments are much more stable

Inevitable

So being all out is not good enough, I should be all in short?

Back your words by selling short to the max you can.

50% drop soon!

Stating and hoping the market crashes because of the hate for Trump is an all time low . You can’t stand our strong economy and would rather see it fail than Trump be successful . Disgraceful!!!

Bring on the volatility! Time to sell some out of the money junk and get paid... PremiumSelling OptionsTrading

Experienced investors recognize market risk! Short-term traders will always face volatility!

So short and be rich, won't have to write cheap opinions for $8.25/hr for fake news then to earn a living.

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Why one big stock-market bear says it’s ‘dangerous to be short’ right now“The big question: Is the U.S. in a recession or about to enter one? We’re either there or within two months away from that.” Haha I bought commodities funds is that a good idea mostly corn focused but scared I’m. A farmer Shorting should be illegal in America
Источник: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 Прочитайте больше »