Overconcentration in U.S. stock market sees fastest rise in 60 years, JPMorgan warns

The U.S. stock market is seeing its dependence on a handful of megacap names increase at the fastest pace in 60 years, which could spell trouble ahead, according to a team of JPMorgan Chase & Co. equity analysts.

In the past, periods where the market became heavily slanted toward an elite group of ultra-valuable stocks have often ended badly, according to a Monday report from a team led by JPMorgan Chief Global Markets Strategist Marko Kolanovic. The team found that over the past six months, the S&P 500 has seen that divergence widen in favor of the biggest companies at the fastest pace since the days of the “Nifty 50,” a group of large-cap stocks that were heavily favored by investors during the 1960s.

In short, a selloff is likely coming, but exactly when is more difficult to say. Whatever the catalyst might be — the team listed off a few possibilities, including a deep recession or a sudden resurgence of inflationary pressures — it will likely mark the end of the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has helped drive this year’s sharp dispersion in equity performance.

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