The team led by Sharon Bell said it expects the spread between Italian 10-year bond yields and those on benchmark German debt to widen further — although more gradually than in recent weeks — as the market re-assesses fiscal risks.
Italian equities have outperformed regional peers by far in 2023 as the surge in bond yields improved the outlook for the country’s financials-heavy benchmark index. But the march higher in rates has also increased government debt costs, and any further spike risks adding pressure on the economy as about 30% of Italian debt is held in the domestic financial system, Bell said.
With its public debt standing at over 140% of gross domestic product, Italy is the second-largest sovereign issuer behind the UK. Moody’s Investors Service currently assesses Italy at Baa3, just one notch above junk, with a negative outlook.
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