Dierking noted that investors who stuck with the classic 60/40 portfolio over the past couple of years have suffered, as “only a 100/0 portfolio really had a chance at generating positive returns.” And while 5% yields on Treasury bills have looked very attractive recently, long-term Treasury bonds are down 45% from their 2020 peak.
With inflation still a problem, bond market volatility will likely remain high along with yields, so going heavily into Treasuries and cash isn’t the best move, he said, and investors should consider rotating part of their portfolio into gold and other commodities instead. Dierking shows the relative performance of stocks, bonds, gold and commodities over the past 15 years.
To test this, Dierking created three simulated portfolios: Portfolio #1 holds 100% U.S. Stock Market, Portfolio #2 is 80% U.S. Stock Market and 20% U.S. Bond Market, and Portfolio #3 contains 60% U.S. Stock Market, 20% U.S. Bond Market, 10% Gold, and 10% Commodities.
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