Emerging market currencies to claw back ground in 2024 as dollar fades: Reuters poll

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BENGALURU/JOHANNESBURG : Emerging market currencies will take well into next year to start making noticeable gains against a retreating U.S. dollar, despite a growing view the interest rate cycle has peaked, a Reuters poll of FX strategists showed.

A bank employee gathers Thai baht notes at a Kasikornbank in Bangkok, Thailand, January 26, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

However, with most EM central banks expected to follow the Fed and cut rates next year, their respective currencies were unlikely to recoup double-digit losses they have accumulated over the past couple of years. This excludes the Russian rouble, which has lost 27 per cent this year, and the Turkish lira, which is down 52 per cent.

Indeed, the tightly-controlled Chinese yuan was forecast to only recoup slightly more than half of its 2023 losses. It has fallen over 5 per cent this year.

 

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