Last week’s inconclusive jobs data means that this week’s inflation data has the potential to be very consequential.in February, according to the establishment survey, but there were large downward revisions to the previous two months. Average hourly wages rose less than forecast, but the work week unexpectedly lengthened.
. That’s consistent with evidence suggesting that downward progress on inflation may have stalled out at an undesirably high rate. that tries to get at what might be thought of as “core” wage inflation. What they found is that while the high wage inflation of the recent past moderated last year, it is no longer coming down and appears to be stuck at a level that is too high to be consistent with the Fed’s two percent inflation target.
If those figures come in as expected, the reaction will probably be very similar to the reaction to the jobs data. Which is to say, it will be a “wait and see what happens next” report. If inflation comes in significantly weaker than expected, especially core inflation, then the market may start. Given the resilience of the jobs market, no CPI report, not even outright deflation, will plausibly move the Fed to consider cutting in March.
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