The FOMC is on track to cut rates as the next policy movement, but when is the question dogging the market?
The Federal Open Market Committee didn’t exactly give the market what it wanted, but the policy statement and outlook have theon track to hit new highs. High inflation and high interest rates aside, the US economy is growing, labor markets are healthy, and inflation is tracking lower, which has the Fed on track to cut rates. In the eyes of the market, the statement signals a pivot in policy that should spur economic activity and S&P 500 earnings growth.
Among the Fed's problems is interest rates. They can’t keep them high forever because rising rates impact everyone's borrowing costs, including the US government. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that a 50 basis point hike would increase the budget deficit by $1 trillion and put the US on the brink of default.
The outlook for earnings is what is driving the market. The consensus estimates that S&P 500 earnings growth will accelerate sequentially through the end of the year and that annual growth will accelerate from this year to the next. This outlook shows that the S&P 500 is in rally mode, and it looks like it will continue to rise.
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