) closed lower on Friday. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have closed higher in seven of the prior nine months, with the Nasdaq also closing higher 9 of the prior 10 weeks. Friday's close also marks the end of the year's second quarter. JPMorgan Private Bank released its 2024 mid-year outlook, titled"A Strong Economy in a Fragile World.
When we take a look at the leaders here, regional banks did the best Kre up 4.5% or thereabouts solar energy day after the debates.Cannabis stocks, Chinese stocks, so a little bit of risk off here but certainly no disasters.It's up about 15% on the year already driven by, largely by Big tech and A I.So it sounds like what you're saying, Ed here is, listen, if the economy is decent and earnings are decent, let's not overthink it that the good times can continue.
And ed another, another, you know, we're talking about variables for, for investors to consider another one I want your, your take on is just valuation when you, when you look at where we're at right now with the market ed, how does valuation look to you?If you were to look at the trailing pe for the S and P 500 it's, you know, above its long term average, not hugely.
We've entered a regime where if bond yield uh spike, then we saw that, for example, last year, 10 year got up to 5% and we got a 10% decline in the S and P 500 pretty quickly.But if let's say inflation does remain sticky and you get inflation expectations get out of hand and interest rates start to rise again.
And so I kind of took that note and then I broaden it out to what other strategists are saying to and ki kind of created three risks that people are watching heading into the second half of the year because we kind of went up in more or less a straight line to start the year.And I think that's gonna be a continued focus going into the second half of the year.
And then as far as sentiment goes, city uses this thing called the Levkovich index to look at whether we're in a period of euphoria or a period of panic when it comes to sort of stock market. So if that starts to play in a little bit more, maybe that's when you finally see stocks stop going up seemingly every day.They talked about the election and the debate and obviously they published before the debate and they, and they told their clients, you know, that it could really clarify, talking about the debate, the key policy platform for the candidates.Find out how to best position your portfolio ahead of any election year volatility.
I'm curious what you're hearing from clients, what questions they have, what concerns they have, what are they coming to you with today?So it is really focused on the rates market I would say and the point that we would make on that is in terms of the market impact, the make up of government is crucial.
Now, during the summer where we have, um, uh, fed meetings, we have another earnings season and citi even thinks that the fed will potentially cut rates before there is an election. But if polling leans either way, then those fiscal concerns will, will become much more of a driver than the nearer term policy of the, of the FOC and the Fed and Alex.What would be the ideal scenario for equities in your estimation in terms of both the presidency and Congress?But then do the markets have a preference for either candidate at this point?I think what we saw during the debate in terms of the market impact was really like a mini window or a microcosm of, of how the market views it.
But apparently with the JD Power's latest uh initial quality survey uh amongst the brand rankings that they do, they do also, they break it down back by car and they notice that uh they do a, they do a uh uh a metric called uh problems per 100 vehicles.Whereas for gas powered cars, it's only 100 and 80.
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