The risky business of standing up to Beijing in the South China Sea

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Capitulating to Chinese demands would set a precedent for other claimants with stakes in the waterway, making it next to impossible to row back from.

Already a subscriber?The clash between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is on everybody’s lips in Manila. Prayers broadcast on the radio plead to a higher power for provocateurs to be kept out.needs to work with Beijing and Washington to lower the temperature, but not capitulate to Chinese demands. Doing so would set a precedent for other claimants with stakes in the waterway that would be next to impossible to row back from.

Filipino navy personnel in the seas of Second Thomas Shoal last month. There have been several clashes with the Chinese recently.The stakes aren’t just about the Philippines’ sovereignty. They are also about what lies under the waters: Huge reserves of oil, gas and fish. Security and trade in the Indo-Pacific is part of the United States’ multipronged strategy of engaging with partners and allies, which is why it is pushing for freedom of navigation there.

That’s obviously not how China sees it. It lays claim to almost all of the South China Sea, and this month put in place new regulations that effectively allow it to treat any foreign vessels as trespassers in its waters. The process for the bill to become law is quite far advanced by all accounts, and just needs to be signed by President Ferdinand Marcos jnr. In theory, it would allow the Philippines to closely monitor vessels entering its territorial seas and block those illegally entering, says Jonathan Malaya, assistant director-general of the National Security Council. This would provide Manila with the legitimacy to defend itself against Beijing’s claims.

 

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