The U.K. stock market is likely to rise over the course of 12 months, if the Bank of England cuts interest rates on Thursday and history repeats itself, according to a
Pro analysis. Economists say the forecasts for whether the U.K. central bank will either reduce or hold rates are a close call. A decision to lower interest rates — which sit at at 5.25% currently — would mark the first time monetary police has been eased in Britain since the hiking cycle began in December 2021.
Pro analyzed stock market data over the past four tightening cycles since 1986 — the earliest date for which FTSE 100 trade data is available. The analysis found that, on three occasions the index had risen more than 20% on average within a year after an interest rate cut. The review also revealed that the FTSE 250 mid-cap index gained by more than 25% on average within a year after a trim.