) has recovered from the growth concerns that emerged earlier in August. While many Wall Street analysts believe the sell-off was excessive, opportunities remain as markets enter the fall season. Several factors support this optimistic view— including that the Federal Reserve may cut rates in September and corporate America continues to generate robust profits.Now, let's well, make a lot of money and get a lot smarter.It's gone by very fast.
And if you look once again this summer, we're gonna end up being up somewhere around 6 7% between Labor Day.Now, that being said, I do think that this upcoming September could be a little bit more volatile. Why did the, it's been an interesting August for investors, of course, came out of the block stocks were selling off Japanese yen carry trade.
I mean, you've seen all the studies, I'm sure you've had them on your show is that oftentimes when people make decisions based on emotions, they get in and out the wrong times and they miss the typical big bounce, right. And then we talk about some of the names that you're talking about that sell some of the biggest, sell off some of the tech companies.
In fact, if you look at our uh GDP forecast for the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year, we think GDP is going to go down to around 1%.And that just sets up AAA cooling period where the economy can kind of reset itself.I think? I think you, you'd be really, uh I think you're the right person to ask on this, giving your perch at Raymond James, what happens to savers when the fed starts to go on this rate cutting cycle?
By the way, I think that's another reason why, you know, we are pretty uh you know, we we remain optimistic on the equity markets because to your point when I do think that those rates start to come down, the opportunity cost of not being in other asset classes like the equity market will grow larger and that'll start to bring some more money back into the equity markets.All right, welcome back to opening bay.
On the other side, as you mentioned, the, the tax cuts from 2017 will expire at the end of this year. Well, guess what energy by far and away is the best performing sector so far under the Biden administration, the sector that everybody told you to, to get into consumer discretionary because of universal income.So my point is that if you were to look at our equity framework that we look at, we have 10 different factors.
And in an economy that is softening and slowing, at least here for the next two quarters, that's a pretty difficult type of situation to be in.If you ex out Amazon, the rest of consumer discretionary had earnings growth of 0.5% basically flat, right?So think about when it slows the impact that it could have ha uh happened.
I think the next level up and you're going to start to see it come out right now is with the hardware and the software enhancements that are going to be used, right? And I think that's probably the most critical part of it that they continue to reinvest to make sure the technology that they have continues to be demanded by both businesses and consumers.
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