A CNBC analysis of recent trade data shows an increase in the flows between China and Mexico of assembled products, and materials and components used in Chinese manufacturing.
The manufacturing shift has also changed the way European companies are operating across a wide range of products."We have European-based companies who once solely manufactured in China and are now manufacturing their products here," said Simon Cohen, founder and CEO of Henco Logistics. The strong pace of nearshoring demand, with items being manufactured, boxed up, and shipped to the U.S.
Growth in demand for containers shipping imports from China into Mexico in the first half of 2024 is further fueling suspicions it has become a"back door into the U.S.," said Peter Sand, chief analyst for ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform Xeneta."This route has grown increasingly popular over the past year-and-a-half," he said.
Piatek said the data shows imports from Mexico to the U.S. have increased 20 percent-plus annually between 2020 to mid-2024, in contrast to the trend of China to U.S. trade. Imports directly from China to the U.S. decreased from 17.7% to 13.5% from 2020 to mid-2024. The import surge aligns with a rise in cross-border trucking from Mexico to the U.S., particularly through Laredo, Texas. Data from Motive, which tracks trucking visits to North American distribution facilities for the top five retailers, shows a record level of truck border crossings and ground import volumes, cementing Mexico as the No. 1 U.S. importer amid declining Chinese imports. The top three U.S. destinations for Mexico exports are El Paso, Houston and San Diego.
"We're talking in general double digits," said Van der Steene."The growth in Mexico is real. Some impact might be linked to tariffs, but overall, and by and large, we see the robust development of the Mexican economy." Data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics' TransBorder Freight program — which breaks down North American freight by mode of transportation, commodity type, and geographic detail for U.S. exports to and imports from Canada and Mexico — also shows the strength of Mexico/U.S. transborder trade.
According to Redwood Mexico, the price for roundtrip trucking from the Pacific Coast Port of Lazaro, Mexico, to Laredo, Texas, for a single container ranges between $3,900-$6,100. The approximate cost to rail a single container from the Port of Lazaro to Laredo is $2,700. Transporting a container by rail from the Port of Lazaro, to Monterrey, California, would be around $2,600.
A 20-foot container of household washing machines holding roughly 50-60 washing machines, which are subject to a 7.5% tariff if imported from China, are one example of the tariffs' added economic bite to the logistics bill. When the Trump administration renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA in 2020, one key provision was a requirement for the countries to begin reviewing the trade deal after six years, a process that will begin in July 2026. If one or more of the three parties decides to not renew the agreement, there will be no immediate end to the deal, but it will trigger years of uncertainty for the markets about the ultimate fate of the trade route.
"Just like he did in his first term, President Trump will continue to use the leverage of the United States to negotiate better trade deals and put American workers, farmers, and families first," said Karoline Leavittnational press secretary for the Trump campaign.
LeBlanc described Uber as an early investor in Texas cross-border logistics located on both sides of Laredo, and said the spaces are now in full use."We also have about 1.5 million square feet of warehouse space spanning 10 locations in Mexico, including Monterrey and Mexico City.
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