Investors are pushing aside the looming presidential election as a key risk to rip-roaring stock prices and are beginning to focus on the here and now. And on that score, things are beginning to appear a little dicey. Middle East tensions are on a steep climb, putting upward pressure on oil prices , among other commodities. That has some on the Street voicing concern about the prospect of renewed inflation.
And of course, uh Exxon is still digesting that very big pioneer acquisition which should really support earnings moving forward.Thanks for reaching out to me on uh on linkedin.So I was thinking over the weekend uh still digesting that really strong jobs report and I I couldn't help but to think is the economy just too strong.
So while the labor market remains uh relatively strong, there is no earthly reason, Brian for people to change their habits of consumption. There is a slowdown in hiring but we haven't seen large uh layoffs or many layoffs really at all for the real economy. And I think once that starts happening, that's when the dam breaks because I'll have one final point not to get too extended, which is a dear friend of mine.So, so once you start to see this snowballing effect of job layoffs, you get a surge in the unemployment rate and that's when you start to see the Sam's Club or the Costco lines or the nail salons dry up in their demand.
Got, you know, I, I was on TV talking about it and it's just not a fun thing to talk about, but I got it out there anyway.And I think that's what uh uh a prudent investor wants.It needs energy, it's a massive consumer of energy.So those are the second derivatives of the A I play trade which has already run its course, in my opinion.
Um, Catherine, you didn't get past me the fact that you're about to, I think come out bullish in health care and that is not lost on me.Uh And then number two, you had the new situation, the active situation with pfizer and Starboard and, and Jeff Smith.And do you read anything about this new activist situation that maybe the space is just too, just too darn cheap.I think coming into this year, our call was utilities because it had been uh devastated in the markets.
And the impact on a one year effect of that would be one full percentage point on headline CP I which is not irrelevant if I'm writing if that's the case, um then the fed does not cut uh going into next year. I mean, the housing market contributes almost one full percentage point to core P ce some things got to give, that's the bottom line.
Well, Alan Lichtman did this really interesting analysis and he's been right uh in every presidential election save too over his life. If Congress is divided, then a Harris administration is less uh is less relevant from uh from a market's perspective.So we really do think it has a lot to do with the composition of Congress and there I have a higher conviction, you know, there's going to be a divided Congress which means that we're probably not going to get a jump in the corporate tax rate or, um, or a slashing of the corporate tax rate.
And it's so funny, Brian, it's like life lessons when, when, when, when that closed it felt like, you know, the end of the world.And it's, and it's been a phenomenal trade and I'm the head of, uh, of research here at Stone next based in Miami.
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