German Stocks Outshine French Due to Fiscal and Growth Concerns

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GERMAN STOCKS,FRENCH ECONOMY,BARCLAYS STRATEGISTS

Barclays' strategists note that German blue-chip stocks hold more promise than their French counterparts, citing France's weak fiscal and growth fundamentals and potential bond vigilante risks. France faces years of political uncertainty and investor concerns over its large debt pile.

German blue-chip stocks show more promise than their French counterparts, Barclays' strategists wrote in a note Friday, saying France has weak"long-term fiscal and growth fundamentals" and a looming risk of bond vigilantes sweeping in.

France's left-wing New Popular Front alliance has said it will table a vote of no confidence if Barnier tries to force through the budget — so the government may need to make concessions to the far-right National Rally party in order to pass the motion. However, if the government falls, that spread could widen toward 100 basis points and drive the CAC down by between 4% and 5%, they warned, and"bond vigilantes would likely step in the event of no stable government forming" or if the budget fails to pass.

Beyond the short-term budget debate, Barclays found medium-term risk asymmetry was"not great" for French markets, and that"concerns about political instability and long-term fiscal trajectory may persist."Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, is not convinced.

 

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