Donald Trump wants lower energy prices. He might get his wish after he is sworn in as president of the world's largest oil producer on Jan. 20, but not because of anything he says or does. Oil prices are expected to fall next year due to a looming surplus. The U.S. is producing record amounts of crude while demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, is slowing as its post-pandemic economic recovery loses steam. Bearish sentiment has swept the energy market, pushing U.S.
crude oil prices down about 1% this year and global benchmark Brent down more than 4% as traders fear an imbalance between supply and demand. 'Trump may get lucky and enjoy lower oil prices due to largely fundamental reasons, not anything he's going to do on day one or afterward,' said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other OPEC+ members have delayed plans to increase production until April in order to prop up prices and keep them from sliding further. The International Energy Agency sees a surplus of 950,000 barrels every day in 2025, even if OPEC+ continues to sit on millions of barrels it could put into the market each day. Brent is expected to trade around $65 per barrel in 2025 and U.S crude at $61, according to forecasts from Bank of America and RBC Capital Markets. Those prices are more than $8 below current levels. While some commodity analysts are less pessimistic than that, few see a really bullish year ahead for oil. UBS, for example, thinks the most likely outcome is that prices will be little changed in 2025, with Brent averaging about $80 per barrel, supported by stronger demand and a smaller surplus than other forecasters. Trump, ironically, is a wild card that could change the price direction. Despite his desire for lower prices, Trump could have the opposite effect if he cracks down on Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports, said Jorge Leon, geopolitical analyst at Rystad Energ