ON MARCH 5TH at its annual parliament, the National People’s Congress , China’s government revealed an economic-growth target of “more than 6%” for this year, a bar it is expected to clear with ease. Take the latest data. China’s key economic indicators for January and February, published on Monday, were buoyant. Industrial production and retail sales, for example, are soaring—35.1% and 33.8% higher than a year ago, respectively, beating consensus forecasts.
This year’s rocket-fuelled figures are even harder to decipher than usual because they are compared with record lows last year, during the first wave of covid-19 outbreaks. Macquarie, a bank, says that if you remove the effect of the pandemic, underlying retail sales were up by 3.1% for the first two months of 2021. This implies consumption accelerated after a few small outbreaks were brought under control in Beijing in January.
The new budget, also unveiled at the NPC, offers an interesting insight into what growth the government is actually expecting for the year ahead. It says the fiscal deficit will be 3.57trn yuan , or 3.2% of GDP, in 2021. That suggests nominal GDP is expected to reach 111.6trn yuan in 2021, ignoring any rounding—an annual growth rate of 8.9% before adjusting for inflation.
From 2012 to 2019, China’s real growth met its targets with suspicious precision. But nominal growth often fell short of the pace implied in the budget. Perhaps inflation was unexpectedly weak. But it is odd for inflation to undershoot when real growth does not. Another possibility is that statisticians understate the rise in prices so as to overstate the rise in output. If so, China’s “real” growth is not as real as it claims to be.
Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article that first appeared in the Finance section of the print edition under the headline “‘Real’ growth in China”.
多假？再怎么假也是世界强国，不是吗
From technology that boosts data upload speeds needed for live streaming, to its own proprietary method to share files between devices, Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei has been filing a record number of patents in recent years. You were saying?
China failed again, LOL
China,China,China
Oh, really?
Is there anything 'real' in China?
Perhaps economist, YOU, should start reporting facts as they truly are. How about that? 😉☺️
You want to measure growth take into account DEBT. US is 7th on the list. Again you were saying? Come on make your delusional point. Economist? Or delusional propaganda machine of the US. 😆🤣😂👍🏻👏🏻
China lies?
😆🤣😂👍🏻👏🏻using GDP to rate growth? And you call yourselves Economist? Let’s skew stats to showcase our delusional belief not facts. Growth rated by PURCHASING POWER PARITY. China is 10th. US not even on the list. You were saying? Get your facts correct. US is in a dismal state.
OK, now you gained more western confidence?
Because China’s growth data are all fake, there is no need for Western countries to be afraid of China.
Plug your ears while stealing a bell. This is an old saying in China. Suit you. Maybe you can make US feel better when they read this crap.
Truly shocked.
Never trust communist regime.
And u want the world to respect you? China 🇨🇳
Obviously
This sounds more like weak hope - a poor alternative to doing something strategically about the rapidly growing Godzilla power of the CCP
No matter how much you declaim these fake and jealous words on China, you can't get any benifit on what you have done.
China needs to drop a cheque somewhere. This is not supposed to be in today's media 🏃🏃🏃
Joke: Some people said he knows China better as a outsider than the native citizens.
Everybody in China lives well.
I'm also doubted about that
You reversed cause and effect. You can study whether household consumption promotes economic growth or economic growth promotes consumption.Because economic growth is accompanied by job creation. Pay more attention to China's economic reforms in the Trump era.
horrible