‘Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates — eventually’: Housing drives inflation, but U.S. property market is cooling

The U.S. economy is still dealing with high inflation, but the housing sector is showing signs of cooling off.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in March from the previous month, according to the latest report from the federal government. It was the smallest uptick in 3 months, and was lower than usual due to an easing in energy costs.Economists said the latest CPI data indicated a slowdown in housing inflation, which ultimately will benefit home buyers.

Yun said it appears “very likely” that mortgage rates will fall below 6% towards the end of the year. U.S. consumers are slightly less pessimistic, and expect rates to be in the 8% range. Private data sources, such as from Apartment List, show that the rent index is only up 2.6% year-over-year, versus the federal government’s estimate of 8.8%, as seen in the chart below.

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