Even with a generally downbeat view of stocks, Bank of America thinks there's at least a good short-term buying opportunity ahead. Primarily, the bank's strategists think all the pessimism has driven an under-allocation to stocks not seen since the Great Financial Crisis lows of 2009. Strategists are largely expecting a downturn in the market and a recession for the economy , even while trillions of dollars sits on the sidelines waiting to be put to work.
One gauge BofA relies on is its Sell Side Indicator, a gauge that measures the typical portfolio allocations on Wall Street. The measure shows a stock allocation of 52.7%, a decline of more than 7 percentage points from the 2021 high and only 1.3 points from a contrarian "buy" signal. Some 39% of the bank's clients say they are moving more into bonds, up from 8% in 2022 and way above the 18% for stocks.