The labor market is slowing only marginally, keeping a much feared recession at bay for now, despite 500 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank since March 2022, when the Fed embarked on its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s to tame inflation.
They believe that claims have probably topped out for now, having barely budged from current levels for much of May. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased by 6,000 to 1.795 million during the week ending May 20, the claims report showed. While the labor market continues to surprise with strength, manufacturing is in a downward spiral. The Institute for said in a separate report on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in May from 47.1 in April.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.Financial markets see a nearly 70% chance of the Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool." report on Wednesday described the labor market as having "continued to be strong" in May, but noted that "many contacts" were "fully staffed.