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An historically volatile week will test the bull market in stocks

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According to one technical analyst, the S&P 500 has been lower the week after Triple Witching in 26 of the past 33 years for an average return of down 0.7%.

I noted last week that the week after Triple Witching is among the weakest weeks of the year, and Friday's action, with the S & P down 1.3% and ending at the lows for the day, seemed to hint at that as well. This historic weakness is well-enshrined in stock market lore and encapsulated in the old chestnut, "Sell Rosh Hoshana and buy Yum Kippur." Rosh Hoshana started September 15th and Yom Kippur ends September 25th.

Howard Marks of Oaktree, one of the most astute investors out there, wrote a piece recently noting that active investors are again underperforming the markets, but observed this is nothing new: "For as long as most of us can remember, active investors have had a tough time keeping up with the equity indices.

 

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