Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is also about to notch its own overbought signal on the weekly time frame — also a first in nearly a year. In fact, the rally in US stocks that began last October came as both the dollar and 10-year worked off their overbought status by moving sideways-to-down for a spell.Overbought dollars and yields — and especially surges in both — are correlated to tough times for stocks.
The chart above shows that the last time yields and dollars were overbought coincided with 2022's bear market, and that these challenges are rearing their head again as the lone purple dot signals. Often, but not always, turbulence in the market has coincided with these overbought signals — the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID Crash being two big exceptions.
If those current moves are done, stocks may have already paid enough of a price to continue their ascent after this "healthy" pullback. But history suggest we are at least a few weeks away from that point. All of this should give hope to stock bulls that once the current repricing turmoil in bonds and currencies is done, stocks can find their footing again. Eventually, rates and the dollar will settle into a new equilibrium, and risk markets can resume being a bit riskier .