The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged this week, at least in part because it doesn't want to add fuel to a real estate market that's already heating up.Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says interest rates will stay put for now because lowering them could undo the progress that has been made in reining in inflation. The Bank of Canada is trying to thread a needle.
"Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers," said Shaun Cathcart, senior economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association. "Could that rebound be stronger than we've expected? Yes, it could," he said. "And that is an upside risk."The question is what may happen if the Bank of Canada cuts rates now, just as the housing market is heading into the spring — which usually sees a surge in activity.
Now, though, inflation is almost all the way back down to the bank's target of two per cent. The year-over-year rate eased to 2.9 per cent in January.Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, says core inflation — which strips out volatile parts of the consumer price index — gives the bank a sense of where the trend is.
"I do think they're going to be kind of reluctant to be cutting around the spring housing-buying season," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citi in New York.
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