Canada’s annual inflation rate in February unexpectedly cooled to 2.8 per cent, the slowest pace since June, and core inflation measures eased to more-than two-year lows.
The market clearly wasn’t positioned for this report. The Canadian dollar and government of Canada bond yields immediately tumbled on the softer-than-expected inflation readings. The loonie fell about a quarter of a cent against the U.S. dollar to 73.50 cents U.S. The Canada two-year bond yield, which was nearly unchanged prior to the 830 am ET report, immediately fell 8 basis points.
Money markets are now placing about 60 per cent odds that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on its first rate cut in June, up from less than 50 per cent odds prior to the data. And, based on implied probabilities in the swaps market, they are placing more than an 80 per cent chance of looser monetary policy in place by July.
Money markets are pricing in a total of 75 basis points of cuts by the end of this year by both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. But today’s report and the credit market reaction to it suggests it might be Canada’s central bank to cut first - in June - whereas the Fed will hold off until July.
The following table details how swaps markets are pricing in further moves in the Bank of Canada overnight rate, according to Refinitiv Eikon data as of 0835 am ET Tuesday. The current Bank of Canada overnight rate is 5 per cent. While the bank moves in quarter point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.
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