European negotiators insist the deal they signed with Prime Minister Theresa May in November 2018 is the only guarantee of an orderly exit, but May has repeatedly failed to ratify the accord., but concern is rising that giving Britain a long delay poses risks of its own and would solve little.
If May gets the deal through parliament, Brexit can be postponed until 22 May. If she fails again, she may have to ask for more time before a crisis summit next week. But will the other 27 EU capitals grant a new delay? If May puts aside her objection to this in exchange for time to seek a majority or agree a route to closer economic ties, a long delay would be needed. With political chaos in London, and European business rattled by the uncertainty surrounding Brexi, Brussels is unenthusiastic.
It is still hard to imagine, however, that EU leaders would turn down a chance to allow Britain to abandon Brexit altogether or to seek a formal customs union. Irish premier, Leo Varadkar, was in Paris on Tuesday for talks with President Emmanuel Macron and will meet Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel in Dublin.
However, the vote itself is an unmoveable date and EU legal experts fear that if Britain fails to take part the new parliament could face a legal challenge. In the end, the debate will simply return to the deal signed in November, Barnier warns.
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