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Why Eli Lilly's earnings are no sure thing for traders despite obesity drug momentum

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The Food and Drug Administration said supplies of Zepbound and Mounjaro are expected to be limited through the second quarter, for all but one dosage.

Eli Lilly appears to be making as much of its popular obesity and diabetes medicines as it can, but shortages are worsening , putting the company's earnings at risk, analysts say. Tirzepatide is the active ingredient in both Eli Lilly's diabetes treatment Mounjaro and its anti-obesity drug Zepbound. The Food and Drug Administration recently reported that supplies of both brands are expected to be limited through the second quarter, for all but one dosage — the introductory 2.

Shin also noted that the there will be some messiness in the first-quarter trends because some of the fourth-quarter sales were pharmacies looking to build up inventory in the wake of Zepbound's approval. Analysts will also been keen to hear about how quickly insurers are adding Zepbound to their list of covered drugs, and how that is impacting realized prices of the drugs.

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