One month’s worth of data does not make a trend—unless it fits the consensus narrative that the Fed is going to cut interest rates a few times this year.first retreat from rising price pressures in six months
which was in line with expectations and below the 0.4 percent recorded in March. The decline in the pace of inflation is somewhat exaggerated by rounding. Unrounded, inflation came in at 0.378 percent in March and fell to 0.313 in April, a decline of just 0.065 percent rather than the 0.1 percent difference in the rounded figure.
The year-over-year rate ticked down to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent. Apart from the prior month, this is. The three-month annualized rate is 4.6 percent, and the six-month annualized rate is 3.7 percent.To put that into perspective, back in December when the Fed famously “pivoted” to a bias in favor of rate cuts the one-month annualized rate was 1.2 percent, and the 12-month rate was 3.1 percent.
, when the Fed meets on the two days following election day. While that’s not completely out of the question, we would expect that the Fed would likely want to watch the reaction of financial markets and other real-time indicators to the election results before moving rates down. That’s even more true if election day is followed by a chaotic reaction by the supporters of whichever candidate loses.
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