Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he favors holding higher interest rates for longer, needing several months of favorable inflation data before pursuing rate cuts. Hennion & Walsh chief investment officer Kevin Mahn:"I think the Fed needs to be careful because if they keep rates too high for too long, they risk their own forecasted economic slowdown moving into a recessionary period.".
Today, we continue to see a little bit of downward pressure on yields here which continues to be a little bit supportive for stocks 4.141% there on the 10 year. You got about rates about 225 basis points lower before the fed gets back down to inflation target of 2%.Because they're more concerned with the recession than they are with inflation staying above 2%.
The last time the Federal Reserve cut interest rate before getting back to their 2% target, Arthur Burns was the chairperson at that time when he cut rates, what happened?Then Paul Volcker stepped in and raised short term interest rates jobs to 20%.But it also brought on a pretty severe recession. So each time a successive FO MC meeting goes where they don't cut interest rates, you could see some more short term bouts of volatility.
And I do believe that there's gonna be more talk by NVIDIA about building out their own data centers.You mentioned ear in your earlier segment that tremendous electricity demand coming from data centers.But there's other companies that are stepping in to help address that very type of need.They supply the Ethernet switches that power and make data centers work efficiently.
I think they're gonna guide forward looking ahead to projected Blackwell sales with the deliveries anticipated for the second half of this year. But really, I think the main deal here is, is that GP T 40 is going to be available right away uh for Azure. But really what that means is that you'll be able to use video uh voice and text and it's the video aspect that's really kind of fundamentally different than what we've had before.But the way it, it all comes together in this package is truly interesting.
But I do want to ask about this first and what you guys are hearing and how close do you think it might be?You know, I think last week the betting markets on P market had about a 10% odds of seeing a spot e approval and now those odds are up above 80% by the end of the year. What changed Matt, I mean, there's been some reporting here that the securities and exchange commission has now sent out requests for comments or follow up requests to some of the firms.And why do you think that they did this all of a sudden?
But I think it's hard to look at what's happening in DC and not see a change taking place in multiple areas including in the ETF market. I think the worst possible outcome for crypto would be a democratic sweep of both houses of Congress and the presidency. So whether or not that's the case, I do want to point out Jim Bianco has pointed out rather and I'll echo his sentiments here that the whole purpose of the spot Bitcoin ETF that there is going to be this wave of boomers and people just absorbing all this, all this Bitcoin into their 401.And this is when it started trading in that range and that is when the flow started decreasing.
I thought it was interesting, Brooke and you, you touched on there sort of the commentary and color we got about how they were thinking about the consumer Ceo Tony Spring, right?But to your point, he also talked about stubborn inflation and, and it's a headwind for his, for his customers.And what's interesting is we're seeing these two different dynamics play out under one.Yeah, the company also beat earnings but once again, low expectations there.
He said that the customers are still looking for experiences over doing those Diy home rental pro projects and also the housing market.And a lot of people did buy new home during the pandemic and they really invested in those homes that they lot. We'll wait and see coming up shares of First Solar they're soaring today after getting price target raises from Piper Sam and U Bs and check in on some of the top calls of the day when market domination returns.We start with Piper Sandler, U BS both raising their price targets on first solar yesterday, we spoke to first solar Ceo Mark Widmer and he told us about what has been driving the solar industry.
And they talk also about big companies, Amazon Microsoft Meta Google have kind of committed here to purchasing renewable power equal to their consumption electricity, right? Uh the car that a truck, sorry that came out that was debuted in 2017 still is in the pilot testing of that vehicle right now. When are we gonna see this on the road 2026 when they say early 2026 1st, real beyond production or beyond pilot spec models.But things may be better than they seem.The US facing a grim milestone when it comes to the federal budget.The treasury puts out a monthly statement statement and it looks like something is gonna happen for the first time this year, which is that uh payments on the national debt, which is called net in net interest payments.
That's one example, the first one came in 2011 and then not much else happened until last year when we saw a couple more downgrades. Now we, we saw a few wobbles in the market for treasuries, uh, during a couple of auctions last year, and the Treasury department changed, uh, some of the things about the way it ran those auctions and it seemed to straighten things out.Uh, we saw interest rates a little bit higher than markets, um, would otherwise have driven them last fall and that is what a debt crisis is gonna look like.
Jason, I want to start with you because if you look at the US Department of Defense budget here, um you know, it's still going up into the right, so to speak, it is still growing.Well, uh it's all about expectations and what the budgets are going to look like uh going forward. Uh and uh and then budget caps, um you know, coming out the other side of these, these things that, that often times uh in, at least in the very near term kind of ruin sentiment uh around uh defense spending because suddenly investors are afraid that there are artificial spending caps put on, on defense spending.It's um you know, uh the crowding out of interest, uh cutting out of interest, expense and, and fear around the political dysfunction in DC Ron.
Um So it sounds like both of you see some uh some scenario for upside here, Jason in terms of the stocks that you think are perhaps best poised among the largest uh aerospace and defense companies.
And then these guys also own a bi jet manufacturer called Gulfstream that just introduced a new product. Well, and sort of on a related point, Jason, do you think that these large defense contractors are doing enough internally to innovate to keep up with some of these, um, upstarts and, or do you think we're going to see some of the start ups being snapped up and being acquired by the public companies?I mean, they all have, uh, you know, corporate venture capital arms.
Once they test fire that, that engine and that's a, you know, bode very well for Neutron, once neutron goes into surface, which is supposed to be some say in the middle of next year, that will be a competitor to the Falcon nine.This will be another medium lift launch vehicle that will address that market and having there's plenty of launch.So this is potentially a game changer for the company.
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