A noticeable shift has taken place on Wall Street and among many economists and business leaders in recent weeks:
The IMF isn't alone in its optimism. The US stock market had one of its best starts to the year since 1998 and is now within striking distance of hitting an all-time high. Goldman Sachs says the likelihood a recession in the next year has been cut in half, to 10 per cent.There's a plausible story to tell that explains why this optimism has taken root.
Almost no independent expert thinks the economy will achieve above 3 per cent growth in 2019 and 2020 as the White House predicts. But most forecasters are now in the 2 to 2.5 per cent range for 2019 and about 2 per cent for 2020, which is likely good enough to keep unemployment low and wages rising at a robust pace.
On the upside, US companies continue to hire at a robust pace and wages are rising, including for lower-skilled workers, which should make Americans comfortable enough to keep spending. The housing market is also showing signs of a rebound, another indication that people are still confident about the economy and their own personal finances.China, a nation Trump often berates, also is providing a boost to the global and US economies by stimulating its own.
If that is the case, Armageddon really is not far off. 🤬
Trump bullying the FED into lowering rates seems so is now classified as a 'market shift' 🤦♂️- Just ignore the all time high debts.
Assuming you are happy to ignore racism, misogyny and criminality