But families across the nation continue to feel the brunt of inflation, particularly when it comes to auto-related expenses, has fallen to 2.7% from a peak above 7% two years ago. While still higher than the FOMC’s 2% target, there’s hope that slow progress on the inflation front over the back half of this year and through 2025 will occur, allowing Chair Powell and the Fed to begin cutting interest rates before too much longer.
There is also a lag effect as insurance companies are late to hike rates on policyholders. But now with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index down sharply from its peak in 2022, the hope is that premium increases will level off. While commuters are footing bigger bills, PGR is doing just fine. Even after rallying more than 60% in the past 12 months, the stock trades about two turns cheaper than its 5-year average forward non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio.
Back in April, Allstate reported operating EPS of $5.13, above the consensus forecast of $3.88 with a better-than-expected combined ratio. Its auto policy count decelerated from a 6.4% decline in Q3 2023 to a 5.2% decline in Q1 of this year.
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