NEW YORK, July 5 - A recalibration of how the U.S. presidential election plays out is causing bond investors to bet yields stay higher for longer as November approaches.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement that the market reaction to Trump's"debate victory reflected the anticipation of the strong-growth, low-inflation reality that President Trump will deliver once again.""The lens really starting to turn to the fiscal and the debt dynamics," said Mary-Therese Barton, fixed income chief investment officer at Pictet Asset Management.
Shorter-dated Treasuries, more directly linked to changes in monetary policy, could still rally in case of rate cuts, but even for bond bulls the outlook for longer-dated Treasuries has become cloudier. Longer dated debt tends to reflect expectations for economic growth, inflation and the fiscal outlook.
Bonds rally when rates are lowered because existing securities yield more than new ones and become more valuable. But as monetary easing has proven elusive, what appeared to be a straightforward trade as the year began has become a test of patience for investors. Year-to-date total returns, which include bond payouts and price fluctuations, were minus 0.6% as of Friday, the ICE BofA US Treasury Index , opens new tab showed. Returns have been negative since early February.
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