Earlier this week, BofA Securities U.S. equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian dampened investor enthusiasm for the immediate and longer term,
“Since 1936, 5% or greater declines in the S&P 500 index have occurred three times per year on average, 10%+ corrections have occurred once per year on average. We are thus overdue for a pullback. We also find ourselves heading into August and September, a period accompanied by seasonally weak S&P 500 returns. With the US election in November, we note that prior presidential election years have seen the VIX increase by about 25% from July to November … Easy index gains may be in.
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