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Does the US stock market sell-off signal a recession, or is it just a natural adjustment?

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Since the turn of the year, the focus for US equity investors has been in the world of technology and the growing influence of AI to not only this sector, but also to business development across the spectrum.

‘The Magnificent Seven’ – Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia’ - have captured the imagination of investors – short and long-term. This frenetic activity provided sufficient momentum to carry the S&P500 index of leading US shares to hit an all-time high valuation of $47 trillion! The flight to quality was there for all to see. The 10-year US Treasury suffered its biggest weekly fall since the start of the year.

It is also fair to say that Friday’s non-farm payrolls for July 2024 came in at a disappointingly benign level of just 117,000 jobs created last month. What many observers could not digest was – how do you get from GDP of 2.8% to recession in almost a heartbeat? Set out below are some figures on the performance of the major US tech operators in the past two weeks, as well as the major global indices in the past week and year to date. US TECH SINCE 16th JULY 2024 - NASDAQ -9.36%, AMAZON -12.

 

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