Although crypto history is short, with Bitcoin celebrating its 15th birthday this year, we have already experienced three major cycles: 2011-2013, 2015-2017, and 2019-2021. The short cycle time is not surprising given the crypto market trades 24/7, about five times more than the equity market. The 2011-2013 cycle was predominantly about BTC, as ETH launched in 2015. Analyzing the past two cycles reveals patterns that help us understand the anatomy of a crypto bull market.
The market now prices in a more than 95% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 50% at the beginning of Q3. Additionally, crypto policy is becoming central in the U.S. election, with Trump endorsing crypto, which may influence the new Democratic candidate. The past two cycles also overlapped with US elections and BTC halving events, adding to the rally potential.
On the cautious side, a larger and more diverse set of altcoins competes for investor capital, and many new projects have limited circulating supply due to airdrops, leading to future dilution. Only ecosystems with solid technology and the ability to attract builders and users may thrive in this cycle.in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin.
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