SYDNEY - Major share indices were deep in the red in Asia on Monday as fears the United States could be heading for recession triggered mass risk aversion and wagers interest rates will have to fall sharply, and quickly, to support growth.Treasury futures were off 5 ticks, but that followed a huge rally on Friday where yields dived 18 basis points to the lowest since November.
"We have increased our 12-month recession odds by 10pp to 25%," said analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note, though they thought the danger was limited by the sheer scope the Fed had to ease policy."The premise of our forecast is that job growth will recover in August and the FOMC will judge 25bp cuts a sufficient response to any downside risks," they added.
Early on Monday, the dollar was down another 0.2% on the Japanese yen at 146.19, while the euro was holding steady at $1.0907. "If the recession narrative takes hold in earnest, we would expect that to change, and the dollar to rebound as safe-haven demand becomes the dominant driver in currency markets."
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