Global Market Forecasts Signal Lower Returns Ahead as US Stocks Underperform

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major asset classesMatching results in recent history, US equities continue to be the outlier for expected return relative to its history and the various asset classes that comprise GMI.

GMI represents a theoretical benchmark for the “optimal” portfolio that’s suited for the average investor with an infinite time horizon. On that basis, GMI is useful as afor customizing asset allocation and portfolio design to match an investor’s expectations, objectives, risk tolerance, etc. GMI’s history suggests that this passive benchmark’s performance is competitive with most active asset-allocation strategies, especially after adjusting for risk, trading costs and taxes.

For context on how GMI’s realized total return has evolved through time, consider the benchmark’s track record on a rolling 10-year annualized basis. * An estimate of the overall portfolio’s expected market price of risk, defined as the Sharpe ratio, which is the ratio of risk premia to volatility . Note: the “portfolio” here and throughout is defined as GMI* The expected correlation for each asset relative to the portfolio

 

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