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How the bond market is pricing in jobs data, Fed rate cuts

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Fixed Income Market Nyheter

George Catrambone,US Labor Market,Federal Reserve

Treasury yields (^FVX, ^TNX, ^TYX) are falling after fewer jobs than expected were added to the US labor market in August, growing by 142,000 nonfarm payroll...

in August, growing by 142,000 nonfarm payroll jobs against estimates of 165,000. As the Federal Reserve gears up for its September meeting, more investors are beginning to price in the odds of a 50-basis-point cut to interest rates.

So I think that's also part of the story that it's not being priced out yet and people are still sort of waiting in a complacent fashion. So I think you need to start to press that we still find the belly attractive, maybe go to fives and short, maybe long end towards the twenties or thirties start to take advantage of that.It's not actually the inversion that causes the recession.

I think it starts to get ahead of itself with 9.5 going to 2025 and still saying we're going to have a soft landing.

 

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