First, the bad news: South Africa’s economy probably contracted in the first quarter of 2019. The good news is that President Cyril Ramaphosa’s incoming administration will probably not have a recession on its hands when it starts work as there are signs that the economy this quarter is growing.
That also contributed to the weak manufacturing numbers for March, which showed production increased by 0.8% month on month in March versus a revised decline of 2.0% month on month in February . The retail sector also got hammered, as many smaller retail outlets had to close their doors periodically in the face of the power cuts. On a seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real retail sales fell 2.9% in Q1 after rising .4% in Q4.
Using the expanded unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and economically inactive citizens, the national unemployment figure jumps to 38%. That is more than a quarter of people, mostly young people, that are desperate for work and an income to restore their dignity. The bottom line is that Q1 was pretty bleak – the GDP numbers will be released in early June 2019 and we will have a better picture of the situation then. Q2 certainly does not have a hard act to follow and the signs so far are tentatively promising, at least off the dismal Q1 performance.that she believes a recession has been avoided, a view that has been echoed by other economists.We have not seen any load-shedding so far in the second quarter and the prolonged gold mining strike ended.
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