, Renaissance Macro Research head of economics, thinks the jobs report will miss the mark and that the Federal Reserve may have to do two 50 basis point cuts to end 2024.
You see a little bit of a recovery there, of course, lower on the week, but it was interesting seeing NASDAQ come back really led by NVIDIA today.You can see there NVIDIA up over the last couple of sessions as well.Um You know, I was watching the indices too, not a whole lot of action there, but I do want to check out three derivative market.I'm just gonna show you on a three month basis.
And it's fascinating because we keep talking about this idea of clarity to come from the jobs report that the next one we get, we're finally going to be able to have that be the thing that is the next big catalyst for the market.That's why we've seen this kind of range bound movement in the S and P 500 over the last eight sessions here.I mean, the jobs market has obviously slowed down but it's not falling off the cliff.
Um And yeah, and you know, 100 50,000 jobs that we are forecasting, uh that's basically not too hot, not too cold.
And if that's the case, if those sectors come back, that's going to be a major boost to earnings for the SNP especially more beaten down, fundamentally challenged stocks from the hiking cycle over the past two years. Uh And then there's not really a lot of suppliers in this space uh uh who can meet the purity requirements of the industry and the complexity of the manufacturing process uh requires months of work to qualify new suppliers.So uh together the criticality and challenge of adding new suppliers means this uh a potential for a big impact is uh possible here.
During a lot of the the shortages, this would have immediately flown through and led to a larger disruption. Uh So you would see them in your smartphone notebook, uh the servers that support all of the web pages you interface with uh and even a lot of the the power delivery into your house, for example, would be driven by semiconductors.
And so obviously, a lot of the Chips Act funding has gone towards the uh manufacturing itself, the Intel Samsung TSM CS of the world. Or is it what you're seeing in, say the labor market data and how much it's weakening that you feel like they need to cut by 100?Uh actually, uh I, I do think that um you know, the call on 50 is really a call on the jobs number clunking between now and the November uh FO MC meeting.
Um, that would probably get the fed to be, to take a more aggressive approach to getting back to neutral. So, Neil there's the labor market side of the dual mandate and then of course, there's the inflation side and I love your confidence here.I mean, that, that's a bit of a bit of a stretch.Um But generally speaking, uh you know, gas prices have been coming down at least over the last several weeks.And what I know about inflation is when I look at unit labor costs, they've basically been zero over the last year.
I mean, could you imagine Jerome Powell getting up there and delivering a 25 basis point rate cut in what, after what could be a potentially negative employment report? So, so Neil, I know that you were a soft landing guy pretty early when some other folks in the space were not on that train.And how elevated do you think the potential risk is of a recession?Well, I mean, the recession risks, um, you know, these things ebb and flow.
And importantly, a lot of this is happening after Powell said that he didn't seek any uh or he didn't welcome any additional cooling in the, in the job market. So if you want to kind of maintain that status, you need to make sure that you're having double digit revenue growth.
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