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GBP: Market turmoil continues – Commerzbank

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Technical Analysis,Banks,BOE

After the market sent out the first warning signs of the new UK budget on Wednesday, it continued seamlessly yesterday, with UK government bond yields rising sharply and the pound depreciating.

Moreover, since Tuesday, a rate cut of around 25 basis points by next September has been priced out. Clearly, the market has serious concerns about the new budget, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. BoE rate cut next week is still likely “Although a lot of information was deliberately leaked in the run-up to the release market participants were surprised by the extent to which the new budget is geared towards delivering more growth in the short term.

And while the risks of another rate pause at the December meeting have increased, it should be remembered that the BoE has been rather dovish of late. It will probably want to cut rates sooner rather than later, which means that another cut in December is still on the table. Of course, a lot depends on how next week's decision is communicated.

 

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