The Nasdaq is at all-time highs, while the Dow is coming off an eight-day losing streak for the first time since 2018. If the Dow falls again today (as it's looking right now), it will be the first nine-day losing streak since 1978.The S&P 500 meanwhile has been flattish since its record high close two weeks ago. But it's still up a whopping 28% so far this year, and its charts seem to hint at continued growth.
We're coming off 11 straight days where there have been more decliners than advancers in the S&P 500--the longest stretch in recent history. There's more! The market cap of U.S. companies whose enterprise value is trading at more than ten times adjusted profits, or Ebitda, according to Goldman is now at a record high, before the market underwent a nasty correction. But then there are mega-cap tech stocks like Google trading at just 22 times forward earnings, which is hardly expensive. What does it all mean? Is the market 'broken'? Is it in a tech or AI bubble? Of course the exuberance is high right now, especially post-election, and I won't be surprised when we have a pullback. With a time horizon of anything beyond a couple of years, would I rotate out of the S&P 500? No. I want exposure to the traditional S&P 500. Does it mean more volatility? Sure. The flipside of that is higher returns in the long run, though. America is the envy of the world right now, for its tech outperformers in particular. The S&P 500 by itself now accounts for more than 50% of global stock market cap. I understand a lot of people want to fade this, and say it's time for a rebalancing to international stock
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