Just a quick comment on Friday, January 3rd, 2025's market action: semis actually saw some good volume, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) seeing the upside. Didn't expect the volume upside on the last trading day, before the real new year starts January 6th, 2025.The forward four-quarter estimate (FFQE) saw the quarterly bump on January 3, 2025, with the forward estimate rising to $272.67 from last week’s $263.39, for a quarterly bump of $9.37.
Effectively, the FFQE until April 1, 2025, becomes the calendar 2025 EPS expectation.Here’s what’s interesting: the 4th quarter of 2024 earnings start in the next 10 days, and the expected S&P 500 EPS growth is +9.6% as of today.Note how Q3 2024 S&P 500’s expected EPS growth rate (first column) bottomed at +4% and ultimately rose to +9.1% as of today’s date. Q4 2024 S&P 500 EPS growth is starting at +9.6% as of today, will likely slip a little over the next few weeks and then work higher after mid-January 2025 and beyond. Year-over-year S&P 500 revenue growth in Q3 2024 hit +5.5%, which was the strongest quarter of S&P 500 revenue growth since Q1 2023’s +5.8%, and that was still the Covid-driven stimulus having a material effect on the numbers. Q4 2024 S&P 500 EPS and revenue growth – as it stands today – is looking at +9.6% EPS growth and +4.1% revenue growth.For the 29 quarters from Q4, 2012, through Q4 2019, the S&P 500 revenue growth averaged +3.2%, and then unfortunately COVID and the pandemic just threw all the numbers completely out-of-whack.Note how 2024 changed in terms of “expected” sector EPS growth within the S&P 50
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