National Oil Companies Face Transformational Challenges in the Evolving Energy Landscape

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. The oil and gas sector continues to play a dominant role in the energy mix, but renewable sources are rapidly gaining ground. The next decade offers both significant opportunities and formidable challenges for national oil companies (NOCs), which find themselves at a pivotal crossroads as oil prices fluctuate, geopolitical tensions rise and the global energy transition accelerates.

How they respond to these complex dynamics will determine their ability to maintain leadership, stay competitive, ensure energy security for their countries, and influence the global energy conversation in the long term. Oil and gas will remain crucial to the global energy mix for the foreseeable future despite the growth of renewables. Oil demand is expected to peak within the next decade, but projections indicate that more than half of today's oil consumption of around 105 million barrels per day will persist until 2050. This enduring demand provides stability for NOCs, but they must navigate a market shaped by price volatility, geopolitical shifts and growing pressure to decarbonize. The outlook for oil prices remains one of the key uncertainties in the near term. Signals in the market suggest 2025 could see a scenario reminiscent of 2015, when global oil prices plunged significantly due to oversupply to below $30 per barrel in the northern hemisphere by the start of 2016. Anne Britt Hydal, Segment Director Governments & NOCs If this pattern holds true, OPEC countries may be forced to implement deep cuts in production to stabilize prices. This would require NOCs to closely monitor these fluctuations, adjusting their strategies to maintain profitability and ensure long-term stability. NOCs currently dominate the global oil and gas sector, accounting for 50% of the world's oil and gas production

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