UBS: The globe is headed for a recession and bear market if this week's US-China trade talks fail

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UBS says that the globe is 'one step away' from recession as the world's two largest economies head to the G-20 summit.

that results in a new wave of tariffs would mean "major" changes to global GDP and market forecasts, global head of economic research Arend Kapteyn wrote in a note.

The impact of a scuttled trade deal at the U.S.-China meeting in Osaka and agitated relations wouldn't be felt immediately, however, but grow in severity over several quarters as higher prices stifle demand and growth, the UBS researcher wrote. In the United States, the cumulative reduction in GDP would be about 1% over six quarters, 1.2% in China and 0.74% in Europe, Kapteyn wrote.U.S.

But further aggravation of the trade conflict could push global equities down 20%, the economist wrote, with the prior U.S. outperformance relative to Europe eroding and emerging markets taking a heavy hit.

 

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Goldbroker_com So what? The Fed will cut rates! 🤦‍♂️😂

Bla bla bla

Donald if you are listening!

Well I hope the banks are holding on it to at least 1% of all the money they've got loaned out there so we don't fail again Hate to see Banks become undercapitalized in the face of an emerging possible crisis

They will fail....I guarantee it

This UB employee has a narrow view of global economy

No pressure

Explain how this week differs from the countless previous weeks of failed Trade Deal Talks. Thanks. SPY300

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