This translation has been automatically generated and has not been verified for accuracy.A decline in interest rates on long-term U.S. government bonds below the average stock dividend yield has received less attention than an inverted Treasury yield curve, but it could be a reason stocks find support after a bruising August.
“Whether it is the Federal Reserve signaling more cuts in the future or just in general this rally in the bond market, overall lower rates - you would think - put some sort of floor on the market as well,” said Mark Kepner, equity trader at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. After dropping 1.8% in August, the S&P has gotten off to a fast start in September to completely erase that decline, in part due to gains in sectors such as energy and consumer discretionary that contain stocks with high dividend yields.
Over the same time period, Stovall found 20 occurrences of the yield on the S&P topping that of the 30-year Treasury. In the following year, the index had risen by an average of 12% while climbing 80% of the time. Recent inversions along the yield curve have triggered worries about an economic slowdown, as they have preceded each recession since 1970.Should a recession take place, stocks will decline and companies could also begin to cut dividends in an effort to conserve cash, further denting their attractiveness to investors.
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