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Saudi oil strikes: S&P Global Platts sees higher risk premium in crude market

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The drone attacks, claimed by Yemen's Houthi group but blamed on Iran by the US, has knocked out more than half of Saudi oil output, or more than 5% of global supply

Smoke rises from the Saudi Aramco facility near Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, September 14 2019. Picture: REUTERS

"The sudden change in geopolitical risk warrants not only an elimination of the $5-$10 a barrel discount on bearish sentiment, but adds a potential $5-$10 a barrel premium to account for now-undeniably high Middle Eastern dangers to supply and the sudden elimination of spare capacity," it said in a note.

Prices could move higher still if Saudi output is curtailed for a more substantial period, the note's author Chris Midgley, global head of analytics at S&P Global Platts, wrote. However, that is not its current assumption. Platts said, however, that"any evidence of prolonged disruption of production would heavily impact Opec spare capacity and the ability of the IEA to use strategic petroleum reserves to shore up the market".

 

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